Obama Regains Public Support Despite Mid-Term Losses

Contributed by Danny S.

Evidently, President Obama has improved his standing with the American people considerably since the November 2010 mid-term election in which Democrats suffered major losses at the congressional and state levels.[1]  The swing of public opinion in favor of the President is impressive, given the level of so-called voter anger that allegedly was being directed at the Democratic Party in those elections.  The complete trajectory of the President’s job approval ratings is available at PollingReport.com.

Please see: http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm    

Since January 1, 2011, public opinion polls show that President Obama has bounced back in terms of his standing with the American public.[2]  Indeed the latest Associated Press-GfK poll was the first public opinion poll in a string of recent polls that show the President has recovered a bit in terms of public support since the bruising mid-term election.[3]  The Associated Press-GfK poll found that President Obama’s job approval rating is now at its highest since the health care reform act was enacted 10 months ago.[4]

The Gallup Poll daily tracking numbers released on January 20, 2011, show the President’s public approval rating at 51%, while disapproval of the President has slid down to 42%.[5]  More impressively, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that 53% of the public approves of Mr. Obama’s job performance.[6]  The NBC/WSJ poll reveals that Mr. Obama’s standing has improved by eight points in just a month.[7]  This approval rating is the highest in the NBC/WSJ poll for Mr. Obama in many months.[8]

A recent Politico article mentions that at this particular moment in their respective first terms, former Presidents Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton were mired in the mid-40s range, as far as public approval of their job performance was concerned.[9]  The Politico article points out that this comparison in terms of job ratings is “a good sign” for the President.[10]

Additionally, the findings of the latest NBC/WSJ poll are mirrored in two other recent public opinion polls from this week: The ABC/Washington Post poll and the CNN/ORC poll.[11]  The ABC/Washington Post poll puts Obama’s approval rating at a healthy 54%.  The CNN/ORC poll shows that Obama’s job approval is a consistently similar 53%.  

RealClearPolitics.com has President Obama's average job approval listed as 50.2% approve as of the afternoon of January 20, 2011.  Of course, RealClearPolitics.com includes the sometimes questioned poll results of Rasmussen Reports.  Rasmussen Reports is the only survey that has shown the President with a net-negative rating in 2011.  Even Rasmussen Reports has President Obama's job approval at 49%, while it has his disapproval listed as 50%, just one point higher.  Please see: http://realclearpolitics.com/

Of course, the President’s approval varies slightly from day-to-day and in different polls.

The entire Democratic Party has reason to be optimistic about these numbers, especially the number of people who now view Democrats in a favorable light (“53 percent favorable”).[12]  The latest NBC/WSJ poll also shows that Democrats have “a net-positive rating from the American public.”[13]

Here is a summary of the recent Obama job approval ratings mentioned in this entry:
1.)  The Gallup Daily Tracking: 51% approve; 42% disapprove.
2.)  The NBC/Wall Street Journal: 53% approve; 41% disapprove.
3.)  The CNN/ORC: 53% approve; 45% disapprove.
4.)  The ABC/Washington Post: 54% approve; 43% disapprove.
5.)  The Associated Press-GfK: 53% approve; 46% disapprove.
6.)  RealClearPolitics.com: 50.2% approve; 44.7% disapprove.

All of the Republicans eagerly predicting doom and gloom for the Democrats and President Obama in the 2012 Election must be disappointed.  This latest batch of public opinion polling shows that it is too early to predict who will win the 2012 Presidential Election.  Indeed this batch of data shows that the President’s job approval ratings have rebounded.  And, generally, when an incumbent President has an average job approval rating at 50% or above, the incumbent wins.

[1] http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm    
[2] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47898.html
[3] http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iGj0OW9TFJOKcLMxqbfX_YpCERzAdocId=cf297da758c24652b7f3b48d9c878da1
[4] http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iGj0OW9TFJOKcLMxqbfX_YpCERzA?docId=cf297da758c24652b7f3b48d9c878da1
[5] http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx, on January 20, 2011
[6] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41161439/ns/politics-more_politics/
[7] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41161439/ns/politics-more_politics/
[8] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41161439/ns/politics-more_politics/
[9] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47898_Page2.html
[10] http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/47898_Page2.html
[11] http://pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm
[12] http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iGj0OW9TFJOKcLMxqbfX_YpCERzA?docId=cf297da758c24652b7f3b48d9c878da1
[13] http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41161439/ns/politics-more_politics/